All six regions traded through a classic overnight-trough-to-morning-ramp pattern, with prices briefly touching negative territory in QLD1 and TAS1 before the demand surge from roughly 04:00–06:30 AEST pushed spot prices back into the $77–$120/MWh average band. NSW1 demand jumped 20% in two hours to 8,645 MW, while VIC1 and QLD1 saw similarly steep ramps. No LOR conditions are forecast over the next 48 hours, and all six interconnectors are currently non-binding, though Basslink is running hard against capability — worth watching if Tasmanian flows tighten further today.
Tasmania was the standout region overnight: renewable penetration hit 89.1% (hydro and wind totalling ~2,216 MW) yet prices still escalated sharply from $26.11/MWh to $70.16/MWh across six intervals, and a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) carried a shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh on 26 August, driving spot to $88.24/MWh. TAS1 also swung from an overnight low of -$1.24/MWh to $88.19/MWh by 6:30am, well below yesterday evening's peak of $269.19/MWh — a reminder that high renewable supply doesn't always insulate a region from constraint-driven volatility.
WA1 recorded the sharpest price action in the six-region set, spiking 120% to $307.06/MWh in a single 10:25 UTC interval before settling back down, contributing to a 24-hour average of $120/MWh and a max of $355/MWh — both the highest of any region reported today. The spike was isolated to one five-minute interval with no sustained follow-through in subsequent trading.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices were steady, with STTM_ADL at $10.61/GJ and STTM_SYD at $10.50/GJ on 27 August, while STTM_BNE edged up slightly to $11.04/GJ from $10.98/GJ the prior day. LGCs continued to soften, last printing at $7.75 for the week ending 21 August, down from $8.50 the week prior and $8.00 the week before that.