A textbook overnight-to-morning ramp played out across the NEM, with demand troughs between 2:50am–3:00am (SA1 down to 283–345 MW) giving way to sharp morning pickups — NSW1 peaked at 9,477 MW overnight before easing to 7,582 MW by 06:30 AEST. QNI was the standout interconnector story, flowing 877 MW from QLD into NSW (83% of its 1,052 MW limit) as Queensland's $98.68/MWh sat $16–20/MWh below NSW, VIC and SA. Brief negative pricing hit NSW1 (-$8.1/MWh) and QLD1 (-$6/MWh) in the pre-dawn window on high solar output. Watch today: WA1 volatility following last night's spike, and whether Tasmania's constraint pricing persists into the evening peak.
Tasmania is the region to watch — 91.6% renewable penetration (1,032 MW hydro, 364 MW wind, just 125 MW gas) delivered the NEM's lowest carbon intensity at 0.0534 tCO2/MWh, yet prices swung sharply from $68–78/MWh to $122–125/MWh between 06:05–06:30. A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) posted an $8.352 million shadow price for the second session running, underlining that abundant clean generation doesn't preclude constraint-driven price pressure.
WA1 recorded the day's highest regional average ($96/MWh) and a moderate price spike to $256.83/MWh at 23:20 on 27 August, up from $175.36/MWh the prior interval, within an elevated $132–176/MWh evening band. No further WEM events reported since.
No LOR conditions forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11.68/GJ and Sydney up from $10.50 to $11.09/GJ day-on-day. LGCs eased to $7.75 for the week ending 21 August, down from $8.50 the prior week, continuing a pullback from July's lows.