NSW1 · NEM — 5-min dispatch intervals
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New South Wales electricity price forecasts are primarily shaped by the availability of the state's large coal-fired generators. Planned and unplanned outages at Eraring, Bayswater, Vales Point, or Mt Piper can move forecast prices significantly, particularly during periods of high demand. The retirement trajectory of these assets adds increasing uncertainty to medium-term price projections.
Solar generation creates a predictable midday price trough in the forecast curve, with prices typically falling as rooftop and utility-scale solar output peaks between 10:00 and 14:00 AEST. The morning and evening ramp periods — when solar output is rising or declining — often see forecast price spikes as dispatchable generation adjusts to fill the gap.
Interconnector flows from Queensland and Victoria influence NSW forecast prices, particularly during periods of surplus renewable generation in neighbouring regions. Constraints on these interconnectors can cause forecast prices to diverge significantly from adjacent regions, creating price separation that is visible in the pre-dispatch forecast data.