QLD1 · NEM — 5-min dispatch intervals
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Queensland price forecasts reflect a generation fleet that combines large black coal baseload with rapidly expanding solar capacity. The pre-dispatch forecast curve shows a distinctive daily pattern: elevated prices overnight and in the early morning when coal plants supply the majority of demand, falling to low or negative prices during the midday solar peak, then rising again through the afternoon and evening.
The state's coal generators — Gladstone, Callide, Stanwell, and others — provide the bulk of overnight generation, and their bid behaviour significantly influences forecast prices during non-solar hours. Outages at major coal plants can push overnight forecast prices to much higher levels than normal.
Queensland's interconnection to New South Wales via QNI means that forecast prices are influenced by conditions in both regions. During periods of high Queensland solar output, exports to NSW can keep prices moderate, while constraints on QNI during peak demand can cause price separation between the two regions.