VIC1 · NEM — 5-min dispatch intervals
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Victorian electricity price forecasts are heavily influenced by the output of the Latrobe Valley brown coal generators — Yallourn and Loy Yang A and B. These plants provide low-cost baseload generation, and their availability is the primary determinant of whether forecast prices sit at moderate or elevated levels.
Wind generation is the major variable in Victorian price forecasting. The state's large wind farm fleet across western Victoria can swing from near-zero to several thousand megawatts of output within hours, creating significant forecast uncertainty. High wind periods typically push forecast prices to very low or negative levels, while wind droughts cause sharp upward revisions.
Victoria's multiple interconnections — with South Australia, New South Wales, and Tasmania — mean that forecast prices are influenced by conditions across the NEM. The Heywood interconnector flow from South Australia and Basslink flow from Tasmania can both significantly affect Victorian pre-dispatch price outcomes.