Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 31 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at **$105.95/MWh** at 06:30 AEST with demand at **6,607 MW**, climbing steadily through the morning peak. The demand trajectory today follows a textbook winter Monday profile: the overnight trough bottomed near 3,370 MW around 11:00–11:30 AEST with prices at or below $0/MWh, before demand surged more than 3,200 MW in under six hours as the morning peak built. That 86% demand uplift drove prices from near-zero to above $100/MWh — a clear illustration of how tightly price responds to demand in Queensland's current supply stack. The morning peak reached 7,344 MW at 18:05 AEST last dispatch cycle, with prices sustaining $92–$114/MWh across that window.

The forecast trajectory for today points to continued elevation through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window (16:30–18:30 UTC), where pre-dispatch forecasts are pricing the 07:00 AEST half-hour at **$92.51–$123.57/MWh**. That range reflects genuine uncertainty in the dispatch stack as demand approaches and potentially exceeds 7,000 MW. By 08:30 AEST (21:00–22:30 UTC), forecasts soften to the **$53–$92/MWh** range as residential heating demand eases with rising temperatures — today's maximum of 19.3°C should moderate mid-morning load materially compared to the overnight 11.4°C reading driving the current 6.6°C heating demand index. The evening peak window around 18:00–19:30 AEST carries forecast prices of **$109–$124/MWh**, consistent with the pattern observed overnight where demand re-built to 5,900–6,200 MW.

Price sensitivity to demand is particularly pronounced at the current 6,500–7,000 MW range, where each 300–400 MW increment is pushing prices up by $10–$20/MWh as peaking plant enters the merit order. Black coal supplies **4,307 MW** and battery storage is dispatching **944 MW** — a large battery contribution consistent with batteries running down morning charge into the peak. Wind contributes **719 MW** and gas OCGT **147 MW**, with solar effectively zero at this pre-dawn reading. Carbon intensity stands at **0.6207 tCO2/MWh** with renewables at **28.85%**, which is notably lower than the overnight period when renewables exceeded 50% at low demand and prices were at or below zero.

One market notice warrants attention: AEMO issued a direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5 with cancellation effective 23:15 AEST last night, indicating supply tightness yesterday evening that has since resolved. No active direction applies to Queensland this morning, and the MTPASA published 19 May identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the outlook period — so today's price elevation is purely demand-driven rather than a supply adequacy signal. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note the 08:30–14:00 AEST window where forecast prices drop to **$35–$54/MWh**, representing the clearest load-shifting opportunity ahead of the evening re-peak.