Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 31 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $105.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 6,607 MW, consistent with a typical winter Monday morning ramp. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: prices collapsed to near-zero and briefly negative between roughly 11:30 AEST and 15:30 AEST (UTC 01:30–05:30) before surging sharply through the morning peak, touching $114.02/MWh at 18:00 AEST and sustaining in the $92–$110/MWh range through the current interval. The current price sits well above the overnight trough but is broadly in line with the sustained morning peak band observed since 17:00 AEST.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,307 MW, with battery storage dispatching 944 MW, wind contributing 719 MW, gas OCGT at 147 MW, hydro at 142 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.1 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Total visible generation is approximately 6,261 MW against 6,608 MW demand, with the balance likely drawn via interconnector flows. Renewable penetration sits at 28.85% at this interval — well below the overnight high of around 54% recorded near 10:30 AEST when demand was low and wind was running strongly. Carbon intensity is 0.6207 tCO2/MWh, up significantly from the overnight trough of approximately 0.41 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the higher coal dispatch fraction now required to meet morning peak demand. Today's clear-sky outlook (0% cloud cover currently, max 19.3°C forecast) will support solar generation as it ramps from around 08:00 AEST, which should apply modest downward pressure on midday prices.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices remaining elevated and rising through the next two half-hour intervals. The 07:00 AEST interval (UTC 21:00) is forecast at $92.51–$92.73/MWh in the most recent runs, representing a marginal easing from the current $105.95/MWh, while the 07:30 AEST (UTC 21:30) interval is forecast at $103.83–$103.87/MWh. Earlier predispatch runs from overnight had that same 07:00 AEST interval priced as high as $370/MWh, which illustrates how dramatically supply-side confidence improved as the morning progressed and generation committed. The 08:00 AEST window (UTC 22:00) shows a broad cluster of forecasts in the $82–$120/MWh range across multiple runs, with the central tendency near $90–$100/MWh. Prices are expected to ease more meaningfully from 08:30 AEST onward as solar generation lifts and demand begins its post-peak decline.

The most relevant active market notice for Queensland is the cancellation of a direction to Origin Energy's Quarantine PS Unit 5, cancelled at 23:15 AEST last night (Market Notice 144172), which removes one source of upward dispatch pressure heading into today. An earlier QLD non-credible contingency event involving the Woolooga–Teebar Creek 275 kV line (Notice 144162) was resolved on 29 May with the line returned to service and