Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 31 May 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $69.95/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,735 MW and climbing. That's well above the overnight trough where prices ran negative — reaching as low as -$2.29/MWh between roughly 10:10 AEST and 12:55 AEST — before the morning ramp drove prices sharply upward from around 15:45 AEST. The morning peak saw intervals above $110/MWh (10:20 and 10:55 AEST), with demand peaking near 7,007 MW around 07:57 AEST. The day's price pattern has followed a classic winter weekday shape: sub-zero overnight, aggressive morning spike, midday moderation, and now an evening demand build pushing prices back toward the $70/MWh range.
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,394.5 MW, accounting for roughly 77% of in-region output. Wind contributes 1,153.8 MW (approximately 20%), with hydro at 0.62 MW and battery dispatch at a marginal 1.17 MW. Solar is zero — as expected for early morning on a heavily overcast winter day (82% cloud cover, 7.2°C). Renewables are contributing 20.82% of generation, a significant drop from the overnight period when wind lifted renewable penetration above 50% as demand fell away. Carbon intensity sits at 0.966 tCO₂/MWh at the latest interval — up sharply from the 0.57–0.58 tCO₂/MWh range recorded between 02:00 and 04:00 AEST when overnight demand was low and wind's relative share was higher. Today's weather outlook — maximum of 11.9°C, 92% average cloud cover, negligible solar potential — means solar will contribute nothing of consequence and thermal and wind will carry the full load through the evening peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to further price escalation through the evening. The 07:01 AEST predispatch run has the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) trading period at $69.99/MWh, broadly in line with current actuals. The 07:30 AEST period (21:30 UTC) is forecast at $92.27/MWh in the most recent run, with earlier runs for the same interval ranging from $78 to $104. The directional signal is consistent: prices are forecast to rise into the $80–$95/MWh range through the next 30–60 minutes as the evening demand ramp intensifies. Load shifting to overnight windows — where predispatch signals prices of $0–$20/MWh from approximately 09:30 AEST onward — offers a material cost differential for flexible loads.
On market notices, the most relevant active VIC1 items are the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage (constraint set V-KOWE active since 25 May, affecting all four major VIC interconnectors) and the now-cancelled Yallourn–Rowville 7 and 8 220 kV line reclassification from 30 May. The Quarantine PS Unit 5 direction in VIC was cancelled at 23:15 AEST on 31 May and is no longer binding. The SA region direction (Market Notice 144