Commodity Demand — QLD1: Thursday 16 July 2026
Queensland demand sits at 6,960 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with spot price at $83.69/MWh — up sharply from the negative pricing seen overnight when demand troughed near 4,507 MW around 11:35am AEST yesterday (11:35 UTC translates to the overnight minimum). The current interval continues a steep morning ramp: demand climbed from roughly 5,700 MW at 05:45 AEST to near 8,000 MW by 08:00-08:30 AEST, dragging price from single digits up to a peak of $113.63/MWh at 08:30 AEST. This morning ramp shows QLD's price sensitivity to demand is pronounced in the 6,000-8,000 MW band — each ~500 MW step up added roughly $20-30/MWh as black coal (currently 6,341 MW, ~91% of generation) and gas peakers absorbed the load, with battery output (222 MW) and hydro (146 MW) providing marginal support.
The demand trajectory today points to a classic morning-shoulder-evening double peak. AEMO's forecast curve shows price easing from current levels toward $53.75-39.75/MWh by 22:00-23:00 AEST as demand pulls back from the 7,800-8,000 MW morning band, then tightening again into a second peak around 09:00-11:00 AEST tomorrow, where forecast RRP reaches $104.83/MWh. Between those points, midday demand is expected to soften into the 6,000-6,500 MW range with prices settling near $70-80/MWh, consistent with the pattern already visible in yesterday's afternoon trough (5,700-5,900 MW, $70-80/MWh).
Overnight demand-side conditions remain a factor shaping today's outlook: an AEMO intervention direction was issued in QLD at 12:15 AEST yesterday and remains active, alongside a non-conformance declaration against unit MPP_2 (-18 MW) running through 10:15 AEST today. These interventions signal AEMO is managing localised supply-demand balance directly rather than relying solely on price signals, which likely explains some of the price volatility seen in the 20:00-22:00 window yesterday (spiking to $175/MWh before collapsing to near zero). With cool 12.6°C conditions and low solar potential (0) this morning limiting rooftop PV offset, expect the morning demand ramp to keep pushing price toward