Commodity Demand — SA1: Thursday 16 July 2026

South Australia's spot price sits at $130.44/MWh at 06:30 AEST (16:30 UTC settlement) with demand at 1,653 MW, up from an overnight trough below 700 MW around 04:15-04:20 AEST when prices bottomed near $54-57/MWh. The overnight period (00:00-05:00 AEST) shows textbook demand-price correlation: as demand fell from ~1,500 MW to a low of 682 MW, prices tracked down from the $80s into the $29-55/MWh range, with the lowest print of $29.05/MWh at 05:05 AEST coinciding with demand near 789 MW. Wind generation was contributing more heavily overnight (renewable penetration hit 61% at 01:00 AEST), easing pressure on thermal plant.

The morning ramp is now underway. Demand climbed sharply from 917 MW at 02:00 AEST through 2,000+ MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST, dragging prices up in step — the 07:00-07:30 AEST window saw demand jump from 1,479 MW to 1,750 MW with prices spiking to $158.65/MWh, and a brief $208.88/MWh print at 17:15 AEST (local evening) on a 1,504 MW load shows SA's price curve remains highly sensitive to even modest demand shifts once generation mix tightens. Current generation mix at the latest interval shows gas (OCGT 399 MW, CCGT 346 MW) covering the bulk of the 1,653 MW load, with wind at just 276 MW and solar at zero given the 20:30 UTC (early morning local) timestamp — renewable share sits at 30.4% and carbon intensity at 0.4006 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the low-wind, no-solar overnight/early conditions.

Looking at today's forecast trajectory, AEMO's projections point to a volatile day ahead: prices are forecast to ease to $95-101/MWh through the 06:00-08:00 AEST window as demand eases post-morning-peak, then fall further into the $25-65/MWh range between 12:30-16:30 AEST (local overnight low-demand trough) before a pronounced afternoon/evening ramp. Forecast prices spike sharply from 16:00 AEST ($102.57/MWh) through the evening peak, with extreme forecast values ($229-840/MWh) appearing around 20: