Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 16 July 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $105.33/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,288 MW, tracking a classic winter morning ramp. Demand climbed from an overnight low near 1,000 MW around 03:10-03:25 AEST (where prices briefly collapsed to $20.20/MWh) through to a morning peak of 1,447 MW at 22:25 UTC (08:25 AEST local equivalent), pushing prices as high as $150.41/MWh in the preceding evening peak and $143.98/MWh at the 07:00 AEST interval today. The correlation is tight: every 50-100 MW step up in demand through the ramp adds roughly $10-30/MWh, with price spikes concentrated in the 15-minute windows where demand accelerates fastest rather than at the absolute demand peak itself.
Today's demand trajectory shows the overnight trough already passed, with the morning ramp now underway and set to peak in the 1,380-1,450 MW range through mid-morning before easing into a milder afternoon plateau around 1,100-1,200 MW. Forecast pricing confirms this shape: AEMO's curve shows a sharp overnight low near $25-30/MWh between 03:00-05:30 AEST tonight, then a steep morning spike to $131-170/MWh between 07:30-09:30 AEST as demand ramps into the same pattern seen today, before settling into the $88-105/MWh band through midday and declining to $61-75/MWh by late afternoon. This evening's peak (18:00-22:00 AEST window) is the key watch period, with forecast pricing hitting $106-161/MWh — consistent with the $141-150/MWh spikes observed in yesterday's equivalent window.
Hydro is supplying the bulk of generation at 1,262 MW against wind at 150 MW and gas OCGT at 207 MW, with renewable penetration at 87.2% and carbon intensity at 0.0832 tCO2/MWh — comfortable headroom for the current demand level. No active LOR notices or demand-side interventions are in force for TAS1 today; the most recent reserve notice (LOR1, 13 July) has been cancelled, and the Gordon-Chapel St 220kV contingency reclassification has reverted to non-credible following the lightning threat clearing. Cold overnight temperatures (8-9°C, heating demand index of 9) and low solar/