Carbon Forecast: Monday 31 August 2026

Carbon intensity across the NEM spans a wide range this morning: TAS1 sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable output (hydro 564 MW, wind 285 MW), and SA1 is at 0.0103 tCO2/MWh with 97.9% renewable penetration, driven by 1,879 MW of wind against negligible gas (0.11 MW OCGT). At the other end, NSW1 is the highest-intensity region at 0.7147 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 18.6%, as 5,146 MW of black coal dominates the mix alongside 595 MW wind and thin solar output (124 MW). QLD1 (0.6092 tCO2/MWh, 30.4% renewable) and VIC1 (0.5805 tCO2/MWh, 52.4% renewable) sit in between, with QLD1's 5,067 MW black coal fleet offset by 1,443 MW wind, and VIC1's 3,108 MW brown coal balanced against a strong 3,147 MW wind contribution.

The overnight-to-morning trajectory shows intensity has been climbing across the mainland regions as solar output faded through the evening ramp. NSW1 troughed near 0.379 tCO2/MWh around 12:30–13:00 AEST (56.8% renewable) during peak rooftop and grid-scale solar, then rose sharply through the afternoon and evening peak, hitting 0.784 tCO2/MWh at 03:00 AEST as coal and gas covered the solar-down, demand-up window. VIC1 followed a similar pattern, dropping to 0.593 tCO2/MWh at 17:00 AEST on strong wind (51.4% renewable) before climbing back into the evening peak. SA1 and TAS1 stayed persistently low all day given wind and hydro dominance, with SA1 troughing at just 0.0102 tCO2/MWh in the late afternoon on near-total renewable supply.

For carbon-sensitive load-shifting today, SA1 and TAS1 remain effectively continuous green windows and are the best candidates for flexible demand at any hour. In NSW1 and VIC1, the lowest-intensity window is likely to fall in the early afternoon trough as solar output peaks and coal output eases back, broadly mirroring yesterday's pattern of NSW1 dropping below 0.40 tCO2/MWh and VIC1 below 0.60 tCO2/MWh around midday to mid-afternoon. QLD1 shows a shallower solar-driven dip through the same window but stays above 0.6 tCO2/MWh most of the day given its heavier coal base. Traders and flexible-load operators should target the midday-to-early-afternoon period in NSW1 and VIC1 for emissions-sensitive dispatch, while avoiding the pre-dawn and evening peak windows (05:00–08:00 and 17:00–20:00 AEST) when intensity is highest across all mainland regions.