Commodity Demand — QLD1: Monday 31 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $63.76/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 6,314 MW, tracking the tail end of the overnight ramp-up. Demand has climbed roughly 2,140 MW since the 04:00 trough (4,175 MW), and price has followed closely — the two moved almost in lockstep overnight, with RRP falling to negative territory ($-3.21/MWh) between 00:00-01:00 when demand bottomed near 4,050-4,175 MW, then lifting through the $40s, $60s and into triple figures as demand pushed past 6,800 MW around 07:00-08:00.
The sharpest price sensitivity today appears in the morning ramp: between 06:00 and 07:30, demand rose from 6,344 MW to 7,347 MW (a 16% increase) while price surged from $44/MWh to $116.51/MWh, a near-tripling. This non-linear response indicates the region is moving up the supply stack quickly once demand clears ~6,800 MW, consistent with gas peaking plant and higher-cost units being dispatched. Demand peaked for the period so far at 7,624 MW near 08:00 AEST, coinciding with the day's high price prints in the $99-116/MWh range. Since late morning, demand has eased back below 7,000 MW into early afternoon and price has softened correspondingly to the $55-78/MWh band, before the current early-evening reading of $63.76/MWh at 6,314 MW.
Forecasts point to a second, sharper demand-driven price spike tonight and tomorrow morning. AEMO's own forward curve shows RRP dropping to negative levels between 23:00 and 05:00 (as low as $-3.61/MWh) as demand falls off, before a steep climb from $2.78/MWh at 06:00 to $93.21/MWh by 08:00-08:30 on 1 September — mirroring today's pattern almost exactly. This suggests overnight minimum demand is expected to fall into the 4,000-4,500 MW range again, with the morning ramp again driving the price response above $90/MWh. Weather data shows cool overnight temperatures (12.7°C, heating demand 5.3) and negligible wind potential (0.5), meaning tonight's price floor and tomorrow's ramp will depend heavily on rooftop solar contribution easing daytime peak (solar potential forecast at only 12.5 for 1 September) and black coal (currently 4,995 MW, 79% of scheduled generation) covering the shoulder periods.
No demand-side constraints or load-shedding notices are active for QLD1 today. The only region-specific notice is a non-conformance event for unit MPP_1 on 30 August (-43 MW, since resolved), and the North Queensland system strength constraint update from 27 August remains in effect for network limits but does not indicate a demand-side risk. Current renewable penetration sits at 25.16% (wind 1,495 MW, near-zero solar given the evening/early morning window), with carbon intensity at 0.655 tCO2/MWh — expect this to tighten further as coal and gas cover the anticipated morning demand ramp tomorrow.