Load Advisor: Monday 31 August 2026
NEM-wide overnight prices are deeply negative across four of five mainland regions right now, with the 06:00-14:00 AEST window (00:00-04:00 UTC) offering the strongest load-shifting opportunity of the day before a sharp morning price ramp sets in from 07:00 AEST.
SA1 shows the best absolute value: predispatch prices bottom out at -$46.10/MWh at 14:00 UTC (00:00 AEST tomorrow reference frame — effectively midday AEST) with a sustained trough of -$33 to -$43/MWh from roughly 10:00-14:00 AEST. VIC1 mirrors this pattern, troughing at -$41.17/MWh around 13:00 AEST and holding sub -$30/MWh from 11:00-13:30 AEST. NSW1 and QLD1 run shallower negative prices, flatlining around -$3/MWh for an extended 10:00-15:00 AEST block — less dramatic than SA1/VIC1 but still a clean 100%+ saving versus this morning's peak. TAS1 is the outlier: its cheapest window is earlier, around 07:30-09:30 AEST (-$7 to -$15/MWh), before prices lift to a flat $50.24/MWh plateau from 10:30 AEST through to 14:00 AEST — flexible Tasmanian load should shift before 09:30 AEST, not after.
All regions face a sharp peak to avoid in the 17:30-20:00 AEST window as forecast prices climb steeply: NSW1 hits $93-95/MWh between 18:00-19:30 AEST, QLD1 peaks at $97.05/MWh around 19:30 AEST, and both regions hold above $80/MWh through to 21:00 AEST. VIC1 and SA1 peaks are milder ($43-68/MWh) but still 3-6x overnight trough pricing. A secondary smaller peak is visible near 17:00 AEST across NSW1/QLD1 (mid-$40s to $50s) as morning solar fades — not as severe as the evening ramp but worth avoiding for high-value flexible loads.
Recommendation: schedule discretionary and shiftable load (EV charging, batch industrial processes, water heating, battery charging) into the 10:00-14:00 AEST window across NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and QLD1, where prices sit at or below zero with near-100% savings versus peak. SA1 and VIC1 offer the deepest discounts and should be prioritised for any load with regional flexibility. TAS1 flexible load should shift earlier, into the 07:30-09:30 AEST window, ahead of its midday price plateau. Across all regions, avoid scheduling flexible load between 17:00-20:00 AEST, when NSW1 and QLD1 prices are forecast to exceed $90/MWh.