Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 31 August 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $14.15/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well below the region's volatile overnight and morning peak — prices spiked as high as $123.87/MWh around 17:30 AEST yesterday evening and touched $120.54/MWh again near 18:45 AEST during the morning demand ramp (08:00-09:00 AEST) before collapsing through the middle of the day. Demand has fallen back to 1,427 MW after peaking near 1,684 MW in the mid-morning block. The 24-hour price path has been a rollercoaster: negative prices as low as -$46/MWh are forecast overnight tonight, following a run of sub-zero five-minute prices between 14:15 and 19:30 AEST yesterday, driven by strong wind output outpacing demand.
Generation mix is currently wind-dominated: wind is contributing 1,728.78 MW, comfortably the largest source, against gas CCGT at 40.67 MW, gas OCGT at just 0.11 MW, and batteries discharging 78.06 MW. Solar output is at 0 MW given the evening/overnight period. This mix puts renewable penetration at 97.79%, with carbon intensity at just 0.0108 tCO2/MWh — near the lowest levels seen in the past 24 hours. Intensity has swung sharply through the day, peaking at 0.3024 tCO2/MWh around 08:00 AEST when gas ramped to cover the morning demand climb, before easing back below 0.02 tCO2/MWh from mid-afternoon onward as wind reasserted itself.
Predispatch forecasts point to sustained negative pricing overnight, bottoming around -$46.10/MWh near 04:00 AEST on 1 September, before recovering through the morning ramp to the $20-30/MWh range by 08:00-09:00 AEST and climbing to $43-56/MWh by mid-morning. Afternoon forecasts firm further, with prices reaching $56-68/MWh between 15:00 and 16:00 AEST as demand builds and wind potential eases slightly (today's average wind potential sits at 5.6%, solar at 5.2%, with 75% cloud cover forecast). Load-shifting windows are attractive tonight, with five separate low-risk intervals between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST offering savings of $95-111/MWh versus peak pricing, all coinciding with near-zero carbon intensity.
On notices, AEMO has recorded a run of Minimum System Load (MSL1) advisories for SA through late August, reflecting the low-demand, high-renewable conditions typical of this period, alongside several voltage-related intervention events and directions issued to AGL SA Generation (Torrens Island and Barker Inlet units) to maintain system security — all now cancelled. Two upcoming system outages are scheduled for 3 September: an MSATS outage (13:00-17:00 AEST) for the FTA Release 2 upgrade, and a MarketNet VPN security patching window (10:00-14:00 AEST). No active market notices currently affect SA generation dispatch today.