Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 31 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $11.88/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well down from yesterday evening's peak of $112.68/MWh hit at 07:30 AEST during the overnight demand ramp. Prices have been highly volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from a low of -$3.84/MWh in the early hours to triple-digit prints during the morning demand build, before collapsing again through the afternoon and evening as demand eased. Total demand currently reads 1,144 MW, tracking near the upper end of its overnight range.
The generation mix is running entirely on renewables: hydro contributes 564 MW and wind 285 MW, with gas OCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. This puts renewable penetration at 100% for the current interval, and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh. This is consistent with the broader pattern over the past 24 hours, where Tasmania spent most periods at 100% renewable supply and zero carbon intensity, aside from brief dips to around 97-98% renewables during periods of higher demand in the morning peak (07:30-11:30 AEST yesterday) when intensity nudged up to a still-low 0.013-0.017 tCO2/MWh.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued soft pricing through the morning, with negative prices expected out to 06:00 AEST (troughing near -$15/MWh around midnight), before a modest recovery to the $50/MWh band from 06:30 through to midday as demand builds. Prices are then forecast to ease back into the $35-40/MWh range through early afternoon, with a moderate bump to $50-61/MWh around 13:00-14:00 AEST likely tied to the afternoon demand shoulder, before softening again into the evening. Wind potential is forecast at 11.4% today, a modest resource with cloud cover at 93% suppressing solar contribution across the region.
On notices, there's nothing currently active specific to Tasmania beyond a resolved lightning-related contingency reclassification on the Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines from 21-22 August, both since cancelled. Broader NEM system notices include a scheduled MSATS outage (3-4 September, FTA Release 2) and a MarketNet VPN security patching window on 3 September, neither of which are expected to affect TAS1 dispatch operations. Recent AEMO intervention activity has been concentrated in SA around voltage control, with no flow-on constraint impacts noted for Tasmania.