The week of 6–13 April 2026 delivered a tale of two halves across the NEM. The first half of the week — Monday through Wednesday — saw moderate-to-elevated prices across most mainland regions, with SA1 spiking to $370/MWh on 8 April and NSW1 touching $238/MWh on the same day, reflecting tighter supply conditions as autumn demand patterns settled in. Tasmania traded with relative stability throughout, averaging in the high $80s to mid-$90s range across those days.
The second half of the week told a markedly different story. From Wednesday night into the weekend, a sustained period of high renewable output — particularly wind in South Australia and Victoria — pushed average daily prices negative in both SA1 and VIC1 across multiple consecutive days. SA1 averaged -$5/MWh on 9 April, -$6/MWh on 10 April, and -$4/MWh on 11 April, while VIC1 mirrored this pattern with averages of -$5/MWh, -$6/MWh, and -$5/MWh across the same three days. This extended run of negative daily averages reflects the depth and persistence of renewable oversupply conditions rather than isolated dispatch anomalies.
Tasmania remained an outlier to the downside pressure, with its predominantly hydro and wind fleet maintaining 100% renewable penetration across multiple early-morning periods throughout the week — a routine operational state for the island state — while sustaining positive spot prices in the $60–$95/MWh range. The T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint was a recurring feature in TAS1, binding repeatedly across the week with a shadow price of $7,308,000, indicating persistent transmission limitations on the Tasmanian network.
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