VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing across three intervals on 1 September 2026, with the minimum price reaching $-34.89/MWh at 04:00. The pricing event occurred during the early morning period when wind and solar generation totalled approximately 2,389 MW, representing a significant portion of the region's total generation mix of around 4,675 MW.
The negative pricing reflects excess supply relative to demand during the off-peak early morning hours, exacerbated by high renewable generation (wind and solar combined representing ~51% of generation). Multiple binding constraints with positive marginal values—particularly constraint F_T+LREG_0050 (marginal value $61.04) and F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 (marginal value $12.20)—indicate transmission limitations were restricting the ability to export surplus generation or balance supply with demand, forcing generators to pay to dispatch their output.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.