Tasmania experienced very high renewable penetration of 89.9% on 30 August 2026, with hydro and wind generation totalling approximately 2,212 MW across six settlement periods. Despite abundant renewable supply, region reference prices (RRP) rose sharply from $15.14/MWh at 06:35 to $85.09/MWh by 07:00, a 462% increase over 25 minutes.
The price spike was driven by binding constraints with marginal values of $7.79–$7.81/MWh, indicating transmission or regional constraint limitations restricting the dispatch of low-cost renewable generation despite high availability. The steep RRP trajectory suggests that as renewable output remained elevated, export capability or intra-regional distribution constraints tightened progressively, forcing the market to rely on higher-cost gas OCGT generation (125–125 MW) to meet demand, resulting in marginal pricing well above renewable marginal cost.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.